Nine months after the Delhi election, none but Bihar, the state overwhelmingly dominated by the lower-income group population, will go to the polls. Following the relatively poor performance in last year’s Lok Sabha election, the Bharatiya Janata Party won Assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, all three states having a much larger share of upper-class and middle-class voters than Bihar.
Contrary to this it lost disastrously in Jharkhand, which like Bihar, too has a big chunk of voters hailing from a very low-income group. Though Jammu and Kashmir also went to the poll, the social equation there was totally different, so the BJP could not win.
Thus, the coming Assembly election in essentially agrarian and ruralized Bihar merits a different analysis. This is the state which is not only dominated by the economically lower class but also by socially backward castes and where the BJP alone has not come to power even once. Here 34% of families survive on an monthly income of Rs 6,000 or less.
Double incumbency factor
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance may go to the polls with the advantage of a double-engine government but will have to face a double incumbency factor as well. No doubt, the NDA still has the potential to form a much bigger caste umbrella, but it is still struggling to find a suitable driver as the one on duty (read Nitish Kumar) now is overshooting all the signals of caution—perhaps due to overtime work.
The BJP, in particular, will have to learn more from its route in neighbouring Jharkhand, a part of Bihar till a quarter century back, rather than remain in the euphoria of winning three much richer and
urbanized states.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election result in India prompted the BJP too to toil hard to woo back a section of the middle-class electorate who were suffering from voter fatigue. Therefore, a new political strategy was adopted to revive the lost ground in Haryana, the state with a big population of trading and business class, and industrialized Maharashtra whose capital city, Mumbai, is the commercial hub of India, where Gujarati entrepreneurs call the shots.
The BJP government was suddenly reminded about the Income Tax concession, not to forget about the announcement regarding the constitution of the Eighth Pay Commission just a few days prior to the February 5 election. Needless to say, Delhi has the highest concentration of middle and upper-class voters.
These measures were not taken in the last Budget as the ruling party was confident that the January 22, 2024 consecration of Ram Mandir would ensure victory. But the temple card did not fully work.
A study in contrast
Bihar and Jharkhand deserve an objective study. While the latter is minerally the richest state of India, it like Bihar has a huge percentage of the population coming from the poor class. They are mostly from the Scheduled Tribes, Scheduled Castes, minorities, and backward castes. The BJP after having antagonized the Adivasis failed to attract voters of other economically weaker sections of the society and thus faced a humiliating defeat. Jharkhand is among the states having very high social and economic disparities.
Bihar is a land with limited economic activities. Apart from the construction sector, the state government has little to offer. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had already encashed the achievements of his government in the 2010 and 2015 Assembly elections. The prohibition imposed on April 1, 2016, did not yield him the desired result as the Janata Dal (United) could win only 43 out of 122 seats it had contested in the 2020 Assembly election. Though public displays of liquor have been checked, yet repeated hooch tragedies leading to a heavy toll on lives are tarnishing the image of the state government.
It is true the NDA did well winning 30 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 poll. Yet it was much less than 39 in 2019. In spite of that in the Assembly election held a year later the NDA just managed to win by a thin majority.
Voters’ indifference
Bihar is not just facing rampant unemployment, but the law and order situation is also deteriorating, there is an economic slowdown and the educational system has almost collapsed. Therefore, there is general indifference and lack of enthusiasm even among the staunch supporters of the NDA. The non-stop phenomenon of question paper leakages and the Nitish Kumar government’s failure on the industrialization front have disillusioned a large number of people
That is why the recent Union Budget’s announcements about building new airports and roads hardly generated appreciation even among the voteries of the ruling combination. As the election in Bihar is nine months from now it is difficult to make political capital out of the Budget. As Nitish Kumar is now not demanding the Special Category Status there is hardly any carrot left for the Centre to dangle.
As infrastructural sector development has its limitations, the whole exercise of making too many roads, flyovers, bridges, airports, metro, and other structures is now proving somewhat counter-productive. The repeated news of the collapse of such structures is causing embarrassment to the government. The acquisition of land for so many Greenfield projects is rendering a large number of people homeless and depriving them of their employment opportunities. Many of them have to run from pillar to post for compensation. So the task cut out for the ruling combination is not so easy.
The outcome of the Delhi election confirmed the fact that the poll-eve promise of cash transfer to women, and concession for them on bus and metro rides by the ruling Aam Aadmi Party did not yield the desired result. This is simply because now all the parties are in the race to make similar offers.
True, the BJP won Delhi and several other state elections without projecting any chief ministerial candidate. So, in Bihar, there is little to worry about. But the problem is that the rival party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, has a strong and young CM face, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, who does not carry any baggage of incumbency.
Since all state elections are different, the BJP and its allies must take a fresh guard before proceeding with the innings.
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