Exit polls predict huge win for NDA in Maharashtra, Jharkhand

Voting in Maharashtra and Jharkhand concluded on Wednesday at 6 pm. Exit polls have predicted a close contest between the BJP-led alliance, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in the two states.

It should be noted that exit polls are not always accurate.

Maharashtra

In Maharashtra, the ruling Mahayuti alliance – BJP, Shiv Sena and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) are eyeing at the 288 assembly constituencies.

The ruling Mahayuti is expected to return to power with a clear majority in Maharashtra Assembly elections winning 150-170 seats out of the 288 constituencies with a vote share of 48 per cent, said Matrize Exit Poll on Wednesday.

The Exit Poll said that the BJP-Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde)-NCP (Ajit Pawar) combine’s back-to-back victory may see the BJP emerge as the largest party in the House with 89-101 seats with 26 per cent vote share.

Giving a party-wise seat share of other parties, the Exit Poll said Congress is likely to get 39-47 seats (15 per cent vote share); NCP (SP) 35-43 seats (13 per cent); NCP (AP) 17-26 seats (6 per cent); Shiv Sena (Shinde) 37-45 seats (15 per cent); Shiv Sena (UBT) 21-29 sets (13 per cent) and others 22-27 seats (12 per cent).

Matrize Exit poll, which relied upon a sample size of 1,79,489, has a margin of error of plus-minus 3 per cent.

The Exit Poll said Mahayuti is likely to win 30-35 seats out of the 70 in Western Maharashtra with a vote share of 48 per cent. In this region, the MVA tally maybe 29-34 with a vote share of 41 per cent. Others may get 0-2 seats with a vote share of 11 per cent.

In Mumbai, Mahayuti may emerge as the favourite, winning 20-26 seats out of the total 36 constituencies. The alliance may garner 47 per cent vote share. The MVA may get 9-15 seats with 40 per cent vote share, according to the Exit Poll.

In the Vidarbha region’s 62 seats, Mahayuti is likely to win 33-39 seats with 46 per cent vote share. The MVA is expected to get 19-24 seats with 42 per cent vote share, said the Exit Poll.

Out of the 46 seats in the Marathwada region, the MVA is likely to get 20-26 seats and Mahayuti may win 19-24 seats. The ruling alliance may get a vote share of 44 per cent as compared to MVA’s 47 per cent.

In North Maharashtra’s 35 Assembly segments, the MVA may out-perform Mahayuti by winning 14-21 seats and getting a vote share of 48 per cent. The ruling Mahayuti may get 13-19 seats with 44 per cent vote share.

Jharkhand

In Jharkhand, where voting was held in two phases – November 13 and November 20 – the contest is between the ruling JMM-led INDIA bloc and the NDA.

According to the polling agency, BJP and its allies are seen crossing the magical mark on its own while the JMM-led alliance is expected to fare poorly in the 81-member Assembly, the polling for which concluded in two phases – 43 seats on November 13 and 38 seats on November 20.

As per Matrize Exit Polls, the BJP along with its alliance partners is likely to garner 42-47 seats while the JMM-Congress and RJD combine is likely to settle between 25-30 seats.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is seen marching much ahead of the ruling party in the tribal state. As per its projections, the BJP is likely to fetch more than 44 per cent vote share while the INDIA Bloc is expected to garner 38 per cent, trailing behind by a gap of more than six per cent.

The regions where the BJP-led alliance is expected to register strong performance are North Chotanagpur and South Chotanagpur while for the INDIA Bloc, the Santhal Pargana is likely to yield maximum seats.

In the 2019 Jharkhand Assembly elections, the JMM-led alliance registered victory in 47 seats while NDA bagged 25 seats. If the Matrize Exit Polls turn true, this will be much like turning the tables for two alliances.

Matrize polling agency collected a sample of more than 87,000 people in the state and took their views to conclude its exit poll findings. Out of 87,000, more than 41,000 men, over 29,000 women and 15,000 shared their opinion on the high-voltage face-off in the tribal state.

“The margin of error in the Jharkhand Exit Polls stands at plus and minus three per cent,” said the agency in a statement.