The high-stakes Bihar Assembly elections finally took a bow on Tuesday, November 11, with the second phase recording a 67.14 percent voter turnout. Initial exit poll projections point to a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Exit polls are surveys conducted with the voters immediately after they leave polling stations with an aim of predicting the election results.
A majority are painting a thumping win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with seat projections ranging between 130 and 167 for the alliance.
Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is projected to win between 57 and 69 seats, while the Congress is expected to win between 11 and 14 seats, according to exit polls.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to emerge as the single largest party, with projections ranging from 67 to 70 seats. However, this tally remains below the RJD’s count in 2020 and less than the BJP’s own 75 seats from the last election.
Interestingly, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj, widely speculated as the potential X factor, is likely to make an impact. Exit poll surveys predict the party may win between zero and five seats.
Here is what the exit polls say about Bihar’s future
| Exit Polls | NDA | INDIA bloc | Jan Suraj Party | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIF Research | 145–163 | 76–95 | 0 | 3–6 |
| Praja Poll Analytics | 184–209 | 32–49 | 0 | 1–5 |
| P-Marq | 142–162 | 80–98 | 1–4 | 0–3 |
| JVC Polls | 135–150 | 88–103 | 0–1 | 3–6 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145–160 | 73–91 | 0 | 5–10 |
| Peoples Insight | 133–148 | 87–102 | 0–2 | 3–6 |
| Polstrat | 133–148* | 87–102 | — | 3–5 |
| Matrize | 147–167 | 70–90 | 0–2 | — |
| DV Research | 137–152 | 83–98 | 2–4 | 4–8 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133–159 | 75–101 | 0–5 | 2–8 |
However, it should be noted that exit polls, though, are not always right. And most have got Bihar wrong multiple times.
The polling percentage across 122 constituencies comprising 3.70 crore voters, which was higher than the “record” 65.09 turnout registered in the first phase on November 6, was likely to go up, as queues of voters were seen at many booths, officials said.
Voting was held in two phases – November 6 and November 11. The first phase recorded an overall voter turnout of more than 65.09 percent.
Counting of votes will take place on November 14.
Note: Exit poll predictions are mostly inaccurate.
Follow on Twitter | Posted by Veena Nair | 
